Risks, plainly
Every way you can lose money in an Arlo, in one place. Each risk says what can happen, what Arlo does about it, and what is left over. Read it before you put money in.
For everyone
Code can have mistakes
- What can happen
- A mistake in Arlo’s code could lose money or lock it up.
- What Arlo does
- The code is public on Arbitrum, and nothing can quietly change it.
- What is left
- No independent firm has reviewed the code yet. Nothing can be paused, so a mistake cannot be fixed inside a running Arlo.
GMX, Arbitrum or USDC can fail
- What can happen
- GMX can pause or remove a market. Arbitrum can stop. USDC can lose its link to the dollar.
- What Arlo does
- The payout waits rather than paying out on a wrong count.
- What is left
- While GMX is paused, trades cannot close, so the payout can wait a long time. Any loss there reaches the wallet, whatever Arlo’s rules say.
Prices can jump past stops
- What can happen
- In a fast market, trades close past their stop prices. Losses can then go past the line.
- What Arlo does
- The $50 cushion pays first, then Arlo’s $30 share.
- What is left
- A big enough jump reaches the Backer’s bonus, then the Backer’s money.
Nobody can step in
- What can happen
- Something goes wrong, and you want someone to undo it.
- What Arlo does
- Nothing, by design. Nobody owns an Arlo, so nobody can move its money outside the rules.
- What is left
- Nobody can reverse a trade, pause an Arlo, or make you whole.
Payouts go to one wallet only
- What can happen
- You lose access to the wallet you paid in from.
- What Arlo does
- The code sends your payout to that wallet and nowhere else, so nobody can redirect it.
- What is left
- Nobody can redirect it for you either. Keep access to your wallet, and never share its secret phrase.
Testnet is practice
- What can happen
- Things on testnet can behave differently from real money: the clock runs faster and the line uses a simpler count.
- What Arlo does
- Get started lists each difference.
- What is left
- Test results do not show how real money would do.
For Traders
You can lose all of your contribution
- What can happen
- Your trades lose, and your whole $1,000 goes.
- What Arlo does
- Trading stops when the wallet falls to $2,200. You never owe more than you put in.
- What is left
- Your money takes every loss first, by design.
Trades close at the end at the market price
- What can happen
- When your Arlo ends, any trade still open closes at whatever the price is, even a winning one.
- What Arlo does
- The app warns you 48 and 24 hours before the end.
- What is left
- If you leave trades open, the market sets the price.
Stops can close late, or freeze
- What can happen
- A stop can fill past its price. GMX can also freeze a stop it cannot fill, for example when the trade is near liquidation.
- What Arlo does
- A frozen stop counts as no stop, so the room sets aside the trade’s whole margin. The app shows it, with two ways out.
- What is left
- A frozen stop in a falling market can ride all the way to liquidation.
GMX can liquidate a trade
- What can happen
- If a trade’s losses nearly use up its margin, GMX closes it and the margin is gone.
- What Arlo does
- The app offers stops only before that point.
- What is left
- High leverage puts that point very close to your entry price.
The fee is the same however it goes
- What can happen
- You end early, or your trades lose.
- What Arlo does
- The fee is $150, taken at the end, only from what the wallet holds.
- What is left
- It does not shrink for a short or losing Arlo. The wallet must grow +5% for you to break even.
Trades still open at the end are closed for you
- What can happen
- Your Arlo ends with trades open. They close at the market’s price then, which may be worse than the price you would choose.
- What Arlo does
- Closes them for you and pays the network cost of closing. Nothing comes out of your share for it.
- What is left
- The price. Close every trade yourself before the end to choose your own prices.
For Backers
Your bonus can be lost
- What can happen
- The wallet ends below $2,120, so the bonus is paid in part or not at all.
- What Arlo does
- The Trader’s money and Arlo’s share go first.
- What is left
- In our worst-day test, 95.98% of test Arlos paid the bonus in full. The rest did not.
Your money can be lost, all of it in the worst case
- What can happen
- A Trader spreads small, high-leverage trades across many markets just before a crash. The losses blow past the line.
- What Arlo does
- Every dollar of the Trader’s $1,000 and all of Arlo’s fee go before yours.
- What is left
- The worst case takes your whole $2,000. It costs the Trader everything too, so it is not a way for them to profit.
You cannot leave a running Arlo
- What can happen
- You want your money back while your Arlo is running.
- What Arlo does
- You can cancel any time while you are still waiting.
- What is left
- Once it starts, it runs to its end. Only the Trader can end it sooner.
You may wait for a match
- What can happen
- No Trader is waiting, so your place sits in line.
- What Arlo does
- Your money stays in the queue, and you can cancel for all of it back.
- What is left
- A waiting place earns nothing.
Payout time is not fixed
- What can happen
- Trades take time to close, or GMX is paused when your Arlo ends.
- What Arlo does
- The payout runs as soon as every trade has closed and the money is back.
- What is left
- Up to 30 days is the trading time, not a promise of when cash arrives.